Riddle: Causation vs Correlation
- Charts in Use
- Charts in Use
- Use these for the In Class exercise
- Charts in Use
- Or use these for the In Class exercise
Exercise: Confirmation Bias
Follow one or both of the Charts in Use links above to the array of charts that purport to provide insight into America’s gun culture.
- Name one chart that confirms your bias and explain why.
- Name one chart that refutes your bias and explain how you react.
Task: Reflective Statement
0. Main takeaway of the riddle: correlation does not equal causation – a concept I was already familiar with. Statistics are often twisted by the media and unfairly used to support the arguments of a biased speaker by any means necessary.
1. a) “Gun ownership vs gun deaths, by state,” confirmed my bias that the higher the number of households that have guns, the more gun deaths there are.
b) The chart that refuted my bias was “Children and guns.” Apparently, the greatest number of children deaths is in Alaska, the majority of which were suicides.
2. Publish Reflective Statement by 12/5. Goal of RS – demonstrate the usage of the core values in our work, using our assignments as proof of our overall growth as writers.
-Correlation does not equal causation. Many statistics show a correlation, however have vastly different causes.
In Class Task:
1:The fire arm deaths per gun owners confirmed my bias in that I believed that the more guns a country or state contains the more likely gun deaths are to occur.
2: Chart that depicts US as having least gun deaths even though people owning the most guns refuted my prior understanding that the more guns you have the more deaths there seem to be.
If you park your car on any street in San Franscico and the car ends up in the bay the only cause is gravity but things like not putting your emergency brake and not turning your wheels to the curb do not go against the reasoning.
1. The chart that confirms my bias where gun ownership versus gun deaths per state. I think it makes sense that more guns in a state would lead to more deaths.
2. The chart that relates accidental death rate and handgun supply does not match the bias. One would think that the more guns owned the more accidental deaths there would be.
Reflective Statement due before class December 5th.
Causation VS Correlation
– We looked at the two different events with relatively correlation
– Follow one or both of the Charts in Use links above to the array of charts that purport to provide insight into America’s gun culture
1. Chart 1 that confirms my bias is accidental Child Firearm Deaths because when Accidental Death Rate is decreasing, the Handgun Supply is increasing.
2. Chart 2 that refuted my bias is Gun ownership VS gun deaths, by state because if people have their own guns, they will protect themselves.
– Core Value 1: Writing is a practice that involves a multi-stage, recursive and social process
– Core Value 2: Close and critical reading, analysis is necessary for listening to and questioning texts, arriving at a thoughtful understanding of those texts, and joining the academic and / or public conversations represented by those texts
– Core Value 3: Writing is shaped by audience, purpose, and context
– Core Value 4: Information literacy is essential to the practice of writing
– Core Value 5: Writing has power and comes with ethical responsibility
– Cut and paste the template from this post into yours
-Just because there is some correlation between two events does not mean that there is a causation. This allows for views that may not necessarily be true to be emphasized and supported.
-Due in Portfolio December 5th
-Provide a defense of the value you have accomplished and link your example of this in your writing.
-One paragraph dedicated to each core value
-Examples do not have to be strictly portfolio work, in class assignments can also be used.
-Copy and Paste the model provided into a document title reflective-username and replace the placeholders with your writing.
-A good example of a reflective statement is linked in the reflective statement assignment detail page.
-Correlation does not imply causation
-Things that may seem to be related to each other may only be related due to pure coincidence.
– Self Reflective Statement
– portfolio task but will not be given feedback or rewritten
– Refer to the core values of the first-year writing program.
– Value 1 = Writing is a multi stage recursive process
– Value 2 = Critical analysis is required in order to fully and deeply understand texts
– Value 3 = Writing is shaped by audience, purpose, and context
– Value 4 = Information literacy is crucial for effective writing
– Value 5 = You have ethical responsibilities when writing due to writings power.
– 1 paragraph devoted to each of the 5 core values(125 words each)
– Deadline Thursday Dec 5th, before class.
Riddle: the conclusion drawn from looking at these ridiculous correlations is simple: correlation simply doesn’t equal causation. Just because the number of chocolate ice cream sales rises as the number of gun homicides rises does not imply that chocolate ice cream is the culprit. Even negatives like letting something bad happen should not be considered causes of that bad thing, even though the positive may have changed the outcome. Failing to use the emergency handbrake or turn the front wheels away from the curve do not explicitly cause a parked car on an incline to fall into the ocean. The only explicit cause can be gravity.
In-Class Task: Confirmation Bias
– Chart 2 completely refuted my prior biases about gun violence’s effect on accidental child deaths. It seems that, according to the chart, the number of guns is inversely proportional to the rate of accidental child firearm deaths. It almost doesn’t make sense.
– Chart 3 pretty much confirmed my biases about the rate of gun deaths vs the amount of gun ownership, though it seems a lot more loosely correlated.
Task: Reflective Statement
– The main idea of this task is to demonstrate how you’ve used each of the five core values in your writing.
– Give a link to a piece of writing you’ve published this semester that emulates a core value.
– There’s more to ethical responsibilities in writing than just avoiding plagiarism. It’s one’s responsibility to give an honest perspective and opinion of a given topic and use evidence, whether it be quotes or statistics, fairly.
– Publish directly to your Portfolio by December 5.
Riddle: Causation vs. Correlation
-Not everything that is correlated has causation.
-Ex: Breakfast does not cause lunch
-If there are correlations between ridiculous accusations such as the correlation showing that eating more cheese causes more bed sheet tangling deaths. How reliable would proven and legitimate charts be after seeing strange correlations? Not very.
Charts in Use:
A. Accidental Firearm Deaths
1. My bias would be that the more access to guns, the more deaths. A Chart showing how suicide and murder rates have increased in the last years because of more guns confirms this bias.
2. The first chart that is in the link for Chart 2 shows that as handgun access increases, the amount of accidental child deaths decrease. This could mean child deaths in general or it could mean specifically deaths caused by guns. I am not sure, so using accidental child deaths as a broad statement could make the chart show information that it truly does not mean.
-Writing is a recursive and social process. It is not until we talk about what we think that we can find our ideas and write.
-Due Dec. 5
 When parking your car in San Francisco at the top of a hill, if you do not put on your emergency brake or turn the wheels towards the curb to stop the car, then your car is most likely to end up in the bay.
-The cause for your car to end up in the bay is gravity, unless you turn the wheel or use the emergency break.
 Causes and Correlation – they are two different things but it is very important for an author to know that just because something supports or correlates to your claim, that does not make is a cause right away.
 In Class: Search for bias statistics from charts and try to prove and disprove what you thought about guns.
 Reflective Statement: This is the final writing for the semester. There will be no feedback or rewrites, just reflecting on what we have learned.
-When you are writing something, it should not just be a one and done situation. You should be able to and willing to go back and make changes and revise everything that you have made and done.
-The Core Values should all be 125 words, per paragraph and there should be 5 paragraphs (one for each).
In Class Work:
The charts show that gun deaths by murder and by suicide have gone up at a constant rate as the amount of guns a person owns increases. It demonstrates that it is true but in a specific way where the author twists wording to manipulate someone.
The chart that refuted my bias was the children’s deaths. It shows that children actually committed suicide the most in Alaska and not really a murder.
The Chart that confirms my bias is “Gun ownership vs gun deaths, by state” This is because this chart shows that the higher the percentage of households in each state who own guns, the higher the percentage of gun deaths there are.
The Chart that refutes my bias would be “Accidental Child Firearm deaths”, my original thought would be that the higher the handgun supply the higher the accidental death rate. This chart shows the opposite, as the handgun supply goes up the accidental death rate continuously decreases.
riddle- does rooster make sun come up? breakfast and lunch
charts for death by bed sheets, etc, believe the correlation as causation
correlation between spelling bee and people killed by venomous spiders, suicides by hanging correlates to number of lawyers, to prove the correlation between guns and gun violence
in class exercise of which chart we are biased to
reflection due dec 5
Chart three confirms my bias by showing that New Jerseys gun ownership per household is less than 10%, making the amount of deaths by firearm significantly less than the other states, such as Wyoming which showed that almost 70% of households have firearms.
The second chart with the accidental child deaths from firearms refutes my bias. This is because the amount of deaths decreased as the number of firearms increased. This refutes my bias because i thought it would be the opposite and increase as the amount of firearms increase.
1. The chart that confirms my bias is discussing accidental child firearms deaths to the total death rate from 1999-2012. As I expected, both rates are staying close together, so as the accidental child firearms death goes up, it is followed by the total death rate.
2. The chart that refutes my bias has to deal with firearms trends in the 21st century. It compares homicides and suicides by guns. Surprisingly, the suicide rate is higher than the homicide rate by guns which I wasn’t expecting due to tons of daily news articles discussing public shootings going on in the 21st century.
1. Chart 2 confirms my bias because you would assume the more guns that are around the higher your chance of being shot would be.
2. Chart 3 refutes my bias because I thought it would make sense that the more handguns that are in circulation, the higher the likelihood that children would accidentally shoot themselves with a handgun would be.
the chart that confirms my bias is surprising because i did not expect guns and gun death to be so related. the chart that does not confirm my bias confuses me because it goes against my expectations, but i am willing to be open minded about it.
The chart depicting the gun ownership vs. gun deaths by states chart confirms my bias of thinking that the more guns available, the more deaths by firearm. Showing that the states with more guns have more gun deaths affirms my thoughts on gun ownership.
The accidental child firearm deaths refutes my idea of more deaths are caused by guns in the home. This is something that I would not expect, but this could also mean that parents are more likely to secure their guns and keep them out of a child’s reach than they were in the past.
Today we started off class by looking at the difference between causation and correlation. We looked at different charts and saw that two completely different topics can correlate with each other but does not cause one or the other.
Then we looked at charts about the gun culture in the United States and how it effects gun deaths in out country as well. We were asked to also leave a separate comment answering the questions What chart supports your bias? What chart refutes it?
The last thing we went over was our last piece of writing for this course. the reflective statement.
This piece of writing is a one draft assignment will be posted directly into your portfolio without feedback and without a rewrite. It is important to use a guide to your FYWP as a large piece to your statement.
Some of the Core Values of the FYWP are:
Core Value 1- Writing is a practice that involves a multi-stage, recursive and social process.
Core Value 2- Close and critical reading/analysis is necessary for listening to and questioning texts, arriving at a thoughtful understanding of those texts, and joining the academic and/or public conversations represented by those texts.
Core Value 3- Writing is shaped by audience, purpose, and context.
Core Value 4- Information literacy is essential to the practice of writing.
Core Value 5- Writing has power and comes with ethical responsibilities.
DEADLINE FOR THIS ASSIGNMENT IS THU DEC 5 !
1. The chart that confirms my bias is the one with accidental deaths of children with increased handguns.
2. The chart of gun ownership vs gun deaths by state refutes my bias. I believe this because increased firearms doesn’t directly cause more deaths, its the people with control of the firearms.
Riddle: Causation vs Correlation:
– The positive correlation between two topics does not always have causation.
– We take a look at multiple charts and choose one that confirms our opinion, and choose another that refutes our bias.
Task: Reflective Statement:
– Self-Reflective Statement – a one-draft assignment that will be posted directly into your Portfolio without feedback and without a rewrite.
– As you craft your Statements, refer to the Core Values of the FYWP:
1. Writing is a practice that involves a multi-stage, recursive and social process.
2. Close and critical reading/analysis is necessary.
3. Writing is shaped by audience, purpose, and context.
4. Information literacy is essential to the practice of writing.
5. Writing has power and comes with ethical responsibilities.
DEADLINE. Post directly into your Portfolio before class THU DEC 05.
Comp 8 AM Class Notes
Causation and Correlation
– [ ] We looked at different statistics and saw what the cause of the scenarios were and how they correlated to each other.
– [ ] We looked at different charts used for seeing the rate of guns deaths and ownership around the country
– [ ] We then had to find one chart that’s supports your bias and one that refutes your bias
– [ ] End of the year writing assignment to reflect on what you know.
– [ ] Post due Thursday December 5
– Something doesn’t necessarily have to be the cause of something even if it seems like they do
– Like for example: If you park your car in San Francisco at the top of a hill, and you don’t turn your wheels to the curb and apply your emergency break, then your car will most likely wind up in a bay. The cause is gravity, the other factors are not applying your break or turning your wheels
– Causes and Correlation are two different things and it is important to realize that just because something correlates to your claim, it doesn’t make it a cause
– Reflective Statement: last writing of the course!!
– Writing should be recursive which means it is not just something you produce, and you’re done with. It requires going back and revising your previous writing and making conversation with the text in a way
– We write to discover what we think.
– 125 words per each core value and cite a piece of work to demonstrate how your work shows you accomplished the goal.
Breakfast does not cause lunch means breakfast does not cause lunch. We looked into causation and correlation on tylerigen.com which showed two unconnected events with a relatively strong correlation. It’s not possible for the number of movies Nicholas Cage and appeared in and the number of people who drowned falling in a pool. Interestingly, the number of accidental firearm deaths has no correlation to handgun supply.
We also looked at charts that refuted or supported our bias, mostly about firearm ownership and death rates.
Then we discussed the reflective statement which is the last writing assignment for this course and is the end of the semester self-assessment. There are five core values that require a 125-word explanation about how we have achieved that core value. Mr. Hodges also wants us to cite a source of our own which could be a non-portfolio assignment or the same version of the same assignment.
The thought that breakfast causes lunch in an inaccurate assumption. This is a prime example of correlation vs. causation. This is simply correlation as the two are completely separate happenings and one does not need to cause the other. People can have breakfast and not need to have lunch later, and they also may not eat breakfast, but will eat lunch.
In Class Exercise:
One such chart that proves my thoughts is between gun ownership by percent of households vs. gun deaths by 100,000 people. This chart shows, just as I had always thought, that the more guns owned by people, the more deaths there would be just due to there being a higher percentage of an accident. A chart that does not line up with my ideals is the chart comparing the availability of handguns in a household vs. the amount of accidental firearm deaths for children. They, according to the graph, show an inversely coordinated relationship whereas the more guns there are, the less deaths there will be.
Class Notes – 11/26/19
Causation vs Correlation
– We began the class looking at spurious correlations, how total opposite charts correlate oddly well together.
– Then, the class looked at an array of charts that provide insight into America’s gun culture and the way it effects the gun deaths in our country.
– We discuss the Core Values of first-year writing programs.
-Value 1: Writing is a practice that involves a multi-stage, social process.
-Value 2: Close and critical reading is necessary for a thoughtful understanding of texts to join in on academic conversation.
-Value 3: Writing is shaped by audience, purpose, and context.
-Value 4: Information literacy is essential to the practice of writing.
-Value 5: Writing is powerful and comes with ethical responsibilities.
1. Gun ownership and suicide rates are positively correlated and confirms my bias.
2. The correlation between homicide by firearms and international firearm ownership refutes my bias because the rate of homicide by firearms is higher when the rate of firearm ownership is low.
1. The chart that refutes my bias is the chart about the relationship between accidental child deaths and handgun supply. It’s strange how as the number of guns increases, the number of deaths decreases.
2. The scatter plot correlating gun deaths and the number of guns per 100,000 people in a state supports my bias. If there are less guns, then there must be less gun deaths.
1. The chart that confirms my bias demonstrates US gun suicide and gun murder rates have gone up at the same rate after declining in the 90s. The availability of hand guns have increased in the last years.
2. Chart 2, homicide rate vs. firearm ownership, refutes my bias. People who own guns are probably trying to protect themselves, which leads to fewer people being killed.
The chart that confirms my bias is the one relating to Accidental Gun Deaths by Children because gun owners with children are much more likely to have their firearm in a locked and secured safe
The chart that refutes my bias is the one relating to Gun Deaths by Ownership in each State because I would tend to believe the more dangerous cities in America would have more deaths related to gun violence.
1) The chart depicting the rate of child firearms deaths and handgun availability confirms that children or anyone with a greater access to guns in their home are at a higher risk of firing the weapon, leading to fatal injuries.
2) However, the chart showing accidental child firearm deaths completely contradicts the first chart, how with with the increase of firearm supply, the accidental death rate decreases dramatically, making it a confusing argument to take sides on. I expected the rate to increase significantly but its the exact opposite.
1. “Gun ownership vs gun deaths, by state,” confirmed my bias that the higher the number of households that have guns, the more gun deaths there are.
2. The chart that refuted my bias was “Children and guns.” Apparently, the greatest number of children deaths is in Alaska, the majority of which were suicides.
One that refutes my bias: Crime vs Guns shows how violent crimes are drastically low even though the owner ship of guns, is extremely higher. This seems like something that shouldn’t be true but if it is it’s probably because the crimes are being committed using other weapons.
One that confirms my bias: US Homicide rate compared to gun purchase applications shows how the homicide rate decreases significantly when the gun purchase application rises much higher. This makes sense since the homicides are probably committed with different kinds of weapons.
1) The chart with gun ownership and deaths for 100,000. I believe that the chart is true, when there is more guns then there will be more deaths.
2) The chart with gun ownership and child death. I expected that rate of child death to be higher than what the chart had shown in 2010.
1. The one chart that confirms my bias shows US gun suicide and gun murder rates increased at the same rate after declining in the 1990s. This makes sense because the number of handguns available has increased in the last two decades.
2. The chart that refutes my bias shows is homicide rate and firearm ownership. If more people own guns, than it is possible they are protecting themselves from being killed and then fewer people would be killed.
1. In Chart 3, it confirms my bias of thinking New Jersey’s gun ownership is very low which has a lower gun death rate per every 100,000. The less people who own guns have a lower rate of having gun deaths.
2. In Chart 2, this refutes my bias of believing that handgun supply would increase accidental gun death rates. In 2010 the gun supply increased tremendously but the accidental gun deaths decreased.